Episode 1376: Root, Root, Root for the Run Differential
Date May 16, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Chris Sale’s seven-inning, 17-strikeout game and the Marlins’ ineptitude, then answer listener emails about differences in home-run distance, rooting for run differential, reimagining errors (and quality starts), whether catchers would still squat after robot umpires were implemented, when relief innings will surpass starter innings, no-hitters as team accomplishments, and the most runs scored in a game by one player who accounted for all of his team’s runs, plus a Stat Blast about hustle doubles. Topics * Differences in HR distance for balls with same exit velocity and launch angle * Rooting for or against in-game run differential * Applying quantifiable measures to assign errors * Impact of positioning on scorekeeper decisions * Potential changes to the rate of hustle doubles * Catcher positioning with robot umpires * Improving catcher career longevity * 'Opener' usage and increase in reliever frequency * Players who score all of their team's runs * No-hitters as team accomplishments Intro Elton John, "Between Seventeen and Twenty" Outro Chip Taylor, "Michael's Song" Banter * Chris Sale's 17 strikeout game and when a 21 strikeout game chase is possible. Sam has often discussed the 21 strikeout game and references the Play Index segment from Episode 871. * Miami Marlins' dreadful offensive start Email Questions * Henry: "Last Friday, May 10th, Joc Pederson hit a home run, his second of the game, that StatCast recorded as having an exit velocity of 113.7 mph and a launch angle of 22 degrees. This home run traveled a reported distance of 402 feet. That same night Ronald Acuna Jr. hit a home run that StatCast recorded as having an exit velocity of 112.7 mph and a launch angle of 21 degrees - nearly identical in exit velocity and launch angle to Pederson's bomb. But this home run traveled a reported distance of 466 feet.Can you please take a minute to explain the forces that so radically altered the flights of such seemingly similar balls? I assume environmental factors have an impact, but maybe spin? Or, if we like a conspiracy, maybe balls are juiced inconsistently? And if distance is only indirectly linked to exit velo and launch angle, are they really the best measures we could use for batted balls?" * Grant: "Last night, the Mariners seriously piled on some runs in the late innings against my Yankees. This got me thinking - I already knew the game was over, so in the long run all this affected was the team's run differential. Should I be rooting for the team to keep that number up? Counterintuitively, I wondered if I should be rooting for the Yankees to win, but in a manner which is representative of the team's ability, so that they could be adequately assessed. That felt silly, and my mind started doing loops: don't I want players to over-perform? Don't I root for over-performance everyday? What about how this affects the Front Office? Would I actually want the team to underperform in order to incentivize Steinbrenner to better the team, so long as underperformance didn't jeopardize the division?" * Sam: "I wanted to get your take on errors. They seem to be so cryptically decided. As a fan you watch the play, listen to the guys in the booth debate it, and then some random magic E just comes out of the blue. Do you see MLB ever making an attempt to use more quantifiable data to assign errors? If advanced defensive metrics evolved into a more dependable source could they be used?" * Andrew: "If we had robot umpires, would catchers still squat?" * Mitch: "The opener seems to me like it's here to stay, as a strategy, even if it never becomes widespread. In light of that, how many seasons do you think it will be until relievers throw more innings than starters, collectively?" * Eric: "What's the highest number of runs a team has scored with one player scoring every one of those runs?" * Brenden: "Recently I saw Landon Powell's name listed as an alumnus of a local youth baseball league but what stuck out to me is that they listed 'catching a no hitter' as his accomplishment. I read that and laughed thinking is being the catcher in a no hitter really an accomplishment. We tend to think of a no hitter or perfect game as a player accomplishment but in actuality it should be considered a team accomplishment. It’s a combination of good pitching and good defense not making any mistakes. Why do we seem to give all the credit to the pitcher and not the team as a whole?" Stat Blast * Sam looks at Statcast data to see if there have been more hustle doubles this season. * Sam looked for doubles hit on ground balls or anything in the air that had an exit velocity of 85 MPH or less. * He did not find any data to support an increase in hustle doubles. Since 2016 the number each season has been 118, 158, and 127. 2019 is on pace for 116 hustle doubles. Notes * Mike Moriarty, Effectively Wild listener and one of the key contributors to the Effectively Wild Wiki, passed away unexpectedly. Mike was a very active member of the Effectively Wild community, wrote for Banished to the Pen, and also helped start a MLB player debut newsletter in 2018. * Professor David Kagan emailed to say that the spin on the ball is the key difference between the HRs by Acuna and Pederson. "This is all due to the fact that the ball-bat collision imparts almost no sidespin to the ball when the bat is level and perpendicular to the trajectory of the incoming pitch. However, if the bat and ball collide when the bat is not perpendicular and level sidespin occurs. There is more sidespin when the ball is hit further away from centerfield." * Ben and Sam think that with robot umpires catchers would be more likely to kneel. Sam thinks this would contribute greatly to catcher career longevity. Ben mentions Episode 1215 where he and Jeff talked with MLB's tallest catchers. * The highest number of runs scored by one player in a game where that amounted to all of the team's runs is four. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1376: Root, Root, Root for the Run Differential * Chris Sale is Sort of Back by Craig Edwards * David Kagan's Major League Physics site * Joc Pederson home run * Ronald Acuna home run * The Opener's Opening Act by Ben Lindbergh * The mystery of the walk-off triple by Sam Miller * Mike Moriarty tribute post * Mike Moriarty Memorial Fund Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes